SPOX's Daily Briefing – What does COVID-19, George Carlin, and Computer Modeling have in common?

Our condolences to those who have lost love ones and to their family members that continue to fight COVID-19.

My first experience with computer models was ‘Back in the Day’ as people tried to guess what the weather was going be for the next day or so. This was before satellites, so they just called people to the west of them, asked about the weather, and which way the wind was blowing.

I remember George Carlin, Hippy-Dippy Weather Man, over 50 years ago, had to admit to his audience that a lot of people were shoveling about two feet of “partly cloudy” off their driveways that morning. “Sorry about that.”

I don’t know about you but I’m getting tired of seeing the health models and graphs. These are all based on predictions and guesses.

For example, the first CDC prediction was over 147,000 deaths as health models started coming from everyone who wanted to get their name on the news. Then came the shutdown of the businesses and the economy. We stopped large groups from gathering including sporting events.

We came up with the idea of social distancing, wearing masks, and a stay-at-home order to limit the spread of the virus. This did help although many people ignored the advice.

We kicked off that order with Mardi Gras and it’s 1.4M attendance.

We follow that with the start of the blue crab season in D.C. Fish markets. Finally, someone stepped in to try to enforce the order, as hundreds crowded the markets, most without masks.

We topped that off by shutting down a funeral in Brooklyn where hundreds of mourners had gathered. One official called the gathering “absolutely unacceptable.”

Also, the police shut down a birthday party attended by nearly 60. The police also broke up a marijuana party and a demonstration in front of a state capital. The large crowd demanded ‘Free Toilet Paper for All’. One unmasked protester said, “No one can stop this movement.”

George had similar problems with his weather models.

“Now, I imagine some of you were a little surprised at the weather over the weekend. Especially if you watched my show on Friday. I’d like to personally apologize to the former residents of Rogers, Illinois. The tornado caught them cats nappin’, man!”

Phase 2 – Starting the recovery

Are we going back to a new normal or the same old stuff?

Of course, golf courses, marijuana stores, and big-box outlets were already open, all deemed essential.

As bars/restaurants opened last week in Arizona, a crowded Tempe college bar sparked concerns. Authorities said the crowded bar appeared to disregard social distancing guidelines. A source told me he did see one person eating a burger.

Testing seems to be a political football. If we had a vaccine, testing would be critical. With our current situation, a negative test means you don’t have the virus TODAY.

George’s Sure Thing prediction: "Weather forecast for tonight: dark. Turning partly light by morning."

Bottom line - here is a summary of death stats last year.

Flu related – 79,000 +

Drug related – 79,000+

Car Crashes – 39,000+

Murders – 17,000+

I’m like George, it’s going to be ‘Partly Cloudy’.